Mumbai, Maharashtra, September 2018 – Nielsen India today unveiled its’s FMCG quarterly report for the quarter ended 30th June 2018 (AMJ). In the last quarterly Jan – March, 2018 report Nielsen had projected that FMCG manufacturers shipment will continue to show high growth in April-June (AMJ) quarter – on the back of a low base; consumption tailwind coming from GST rate cuts, strengthening macro-economics, and robust monsoon projections. This trend clearly got reflected in financial performance reported by listed FMCG manufacturers for AMJ quarter. On the consumer offtake side, consumption buoyancy continued in AMJ quarter – the FMCG industry witnessed 10.9% growth in the quarter over year ago. With this, the FMCG industry growth stood at 11.6% in MAT June 18; nearly 70% of this is driven by consumption volume

Commenting on the report, Sameer Shukla, Executive Director, Nielsen India said, “The trade dynamism triggered by demonetisation and GST roll out has almost settled down. As a result, Apr-Jun 2018 quarter witnessed strong shipment growth on the back of a low base of last year. Meanwhile, retail offtake continued to be buoyant with double digit growth on the back of tailwinds viz. GST rate cuts, strengthening macro-economics, and robust monsoon projections. Also, the retail stock levels have risen and now stand at higher than pre-demonetisation level; modern trade channels are showing very high growth and rural growth has picked up as cash is back in the market”.

Further commenting on the outlook, Sameer added, “Nielsen projects that growth trends between FMCG manufacturers’ shipments and retail offtake will come closer to each other in the current quarter. However, shipment growths will continue to be tad higher than consumer offtakes for the next few months, owing to the cyclical relationship between the two. Looking at the overall macro-economic scenario and FMCG industry dynamics, Nielsen forecasts the industry growth in 2018 calendar to be around 12-13%, which is closer to the growth range witnessed by the industry in 2017. The economic momentum is expected to gather pace through the second half of 2018 benefiting from a favourable economic and policy environment.”

Key findings of the report

Retail stock levels have jumped to levels higher than pre-demonetisation period:

Demonetisation woes and uncertainties around GST had created short-term stress on retail stock levels. With the passage of time, retail stock levels have bounced back and stand at a higher level from pre-demonetisation period.

Modern trade channels have bounced back

This growth in MT channel is fuelled by store universe expansion and better activation through multiple big days/ weeks and general consumer promotions.

Rural to urban growth differential picks up again

With wholesale channels bouncing back, FMCG growth in rural markets have gradually picked up. As a result, the growth differential between rural and urban areas has reduced.

Rise of the local giants

An analysis of growth among FMCG manufacturers with more than INR 1000 Crore annual turnover suggest that in 2016, seven among 10 fastest growing companies were of Indian origin; the number went up to nine in MAT June 2018.

Naturals trend continues in personal care

The increasing awareness among consumers about well-being and association between natural ingredients with health, Indian consumers have shown a growing affinity towards FMCG brands having ‘naturals’ proposition. This trend continues and natural segment1 continue to show healthy growth of 20% (MAT Mar’18 vs year ago) - almost 3X times of the non-natural segment.

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